Aug. 21, 2020 by David Silverberg
The winners of the Florida 19th Congressional District primary election on Tuesday, Aug. 18 were both underdogs in their respective primary races—but that’s where their similarities end.
Cindy Banyai
On the Democratic side, when the race began, Cindy Banyai was the new girl in town, starting from scratch—people didn’t even know how to pronounce her name. (Ban-YAY, with a hard A.) She was a first time candidate up against David Holden who had run for Congress in 2018. As a result of that run, Holden was well known in Collier County, had established fundraising networks, name recognition and a base of supporters. Banyai never raised his kind of campaign money--$85,548.50 in receipts as of July 31, compared to Holden’s $229,760.19, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Byron Donalds
On the Republican side, Byron Donalds, although already a sitting state legislator, entered a crowded field relatively late in the game. He was up against two wealthy, largely self-funded candidates in Casey Askar and William Figlesthaler, both of whom bought lots of TV air time. In his fellow state Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral) he was facing an established political figure who spent his whole adulthood in politics and served as majority leader in the state legislature. In an additional advantage, Eagle was based in Cape Coral, the demographic center of gravity of the 19th District.
Although both Banyai and Donalds were underdogs, each responded to their underdog status in different ways.
Banyai simply worked extremely hard all the time from the moment she declared her candidacy in September, before Rep. Francis Rooney announced his retirement. She sent out a constant stream of tweets, pronouncements, statements and a direct mail flyer. She wrote op-eds that appeared on the environment and Social Security. She held weekly virtual coffees and town halls. She energetically built coalitions and networks, vigorously reached out to other candidates and actively sought their endorsements. In at least one instance her outreach included Republicans. With traditional in-person campaigning curtailed due to the coronavirus pandemic, the constant digital campaigning stood her in good stead.
Lee County Democratic results (Lee County Election Office)
Collier County Democratic results (Collier County Election Office)
Donalds came by his underdog status because of the amount of money arrayed against him. He could not outraise or provide personal funds that could match Askar or Figlesthaler. But Donalds compensated by pledging his ideological soul to the conservative cause and winning the endorsement of organizations like Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity and the National Rifle Association. Super political action committees (PACs) that could spend unlimited amounts supporting his candidacy made up the difference.
Lee County Republican election results (Lee County Election Office)
Collier County election results (Collier County Elections Office)
It did not hurt him that, as he himself said: “I’m everything the fake news media says doesn't exist: a Donald Trump-supporting, liberty-loving, pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment black man.” As one of the very few African American conservative Trumpers (another one, Herman Cain, died of COVID after attending a Trump rally unmasked), Donalds had the potential to inoculate the Trump right from charges of racism, making him extremely valuable to the Trumpist cause. Of all the candidates endorsed by Club for Growth, he was the only African American.
The outside PAC funding ultimately made the difference for Donalds, allowing him to narrow the broadcast advertising gap.
Although Eagle received a higher vote total than Donalds in Lee County, late on election night he conceded to Donalds, as did Figlesthaler. As of this writing, nothing public has been heard from Casey Askar or the other Republican candidates, although none of their vote totals came close to Donalds’.
State of play
As the general election battle begins, both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses.
Having won her primary, Banyai will now be receiving new endorsements (including one from David Holden, which should be coming since both candidates pledged to actively support the winner). Local Democratic Party organizations should be offering support, volunteer efforts and funding. If local media do their due diligence, they will acknowledge her campaign (in the past local media outlets have just ignored Democrats) and she may receive national media attention. Her fundraising should be enhanced and new sources will likely open up to her. This year, unlike 2018 when Rep. Rooney simply refused to debate and local organizations passively accepted his disdain, there may be actual formal debates where she’ll have a chance to explain her platform and gain a wider audience.
But in addition to her proven hard work and initiative, Banyai has the advantage of identifying with a popular candidate at the head of the ticket and a groundswell of urgency and desperation in the electorate that goes well beyond party divides. In Joe Biden, Banyai connects to a figure who has wide acceptance, as demonstrated by his consistently high polling data. There also appears to be increasing support from traditional Republicans repulsed by Donald Trump. What is more, the entire state of Florida is showing increasing signs of moving in a Democratic direction.
On the Republican side, having won his primary, Donalds will now receive the support of the local Republican Party organizations. Presumably the PACs that helped elect him will continue their support, although they may figure that having won his nomination in a safely Republican district they’re able to ignore the 19th and direct their resources elsewhere.
Most of all, Donalds has the advantage of the numbers on the ground, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats. As of this writing, in Lee County there were 202,553 registered Republicans, 129,245 Democrats, and 140,377 others including non-party affiliates (NPAs) and independents. (In Florida there is an Independent Party, so NPAs are not the same as independents.) In Collier County there are 112,044 registered Republicans, 54,380 Democrats, and 53,374 others.
The conventional wisdom is that people reflexively vote their registered party affiliation. In the past, that would be true in Southwest Florida. But now is not the past.
What’s new and different
This year, it would be unwise for anyone to blithely assume that the Republican primary is tantamount to the election in the 19th Congressional District.
There are several factors that make this an unusual year. One is the coronavirus pandemic. It continues to threaten lives, especially given the elderly population in Southwest Florida—and school-age children are at risk even as the state presses parents to send them to school. The national and state responses have been incredibly botched and even delusional. Another wave of infections may get worse. Voters have taken notice of the government response at the federal and state levels and people are frustrated, fearful and angry.
The local economy has crashed and the prospects for a quick recovery are dim. Instead, the economic effects of the botched pandemic response will continue to roll out in the days ahead, with more business closings and layoffs. With international trade disrupted by Trump administration trade wars and new border obstacles to international travel, the traditional influx of foreign visitors, snowbirds and investors is curtailed, further depressing an extremely seasonal economy built on tourism, hospitality and travel.
In the past, mail-in voting was the Republican secret sauce to winning local elections as people voted from the comfort of their second homes in the Midwest. Add to that the fact that the coronavirus has made mail-in voting essential for worried voters. In this primary election the majority of ballots were cast by mail but these were mailed out and returned before Trump and his Postmaster General Louis DeJoy attacked and disrupted the mail system. Having crippled the mails, Trump may have also crippled Republican mail-in balloting in Southwest Florida. Republicans may not be able to count on those absentee ballots to make up their majority despite the Florida state Republican party’s efforts to blur—literally—Trump’s attacks.
There is also always the possibility that natural disasters like hurricanes, red tide or algal blooms could occur in Southwest Florida but their political impacts are impossible to measure before the event.
But the single biggest political factor in the 19th Congressional District race right now is Donald Trump.
In Trump’s shadow
The 2020 election is a referendum on the presidency of Donald Trump—at both the national and local levels.
As a progressive Biden Democrat, Banyai offers an alternative to the current status quo. She is now the underdog in the race and the rebel against the existing order, both locally and nationally. Her task in getting elected is difficult but relatively simple: she has to win over enough NPAs, never-Trumpers and newly disaffected Republicans to form a majority coalition along with the Democrats who will support her. (To see a more detailed discussion of this topic see the article: “Passion and Pragmatism: The Democratic path to victory.”) It does not hurt that she’s a suburban mom with school-age children who can relate directly to mothers of all ages.
But the situation is much more complex for Donalds. Although the Casey Askar campaign played up Donalds’ various apostasies—voting for Barack Obama, saying nice things about Mitt Romney, having impure non-Trumpist thoughts in the dark mists of the past—Donalds loudly and emphatically proclaimed his total, undying loyalty to Trump.
He’s now the top dog in the race and he’s joined at the hip to Trump. He and the Club for Growth Action PAC played up his absolute, unvarying ideological obedience during his primary bid. In Southwest Florida that is certainly an advantage with the committed Trumpers who decided the Republican primary—but even so he barely squeaked by.
His absolute Trumpism means that he buys the bad with the good—in addition to the credits he gets for fealty, he also stands with Trump’s lying, meanness, cruelty, indifference, narcissism, corruption, irrationality, ineptitude and, to use Trump’s own words, “hatred, prejudice and rage.”
It also means he stands with Trump policies and many of these are inimical to Southwest Florida, like destroying Social Security and trying to take away everyone's healthcare; restricting border crossings and travel and hampering local tourism and investment; despoiling and polluting the environment; drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico; attacking immigrants and immigration, which hurts local businesses and agriculture; and excusing and justifying the sheer incompetence of Trump’s and Gov. Ron DeSantis’ coronavirus response—or perhaps better put—non-response.
Donalds has to defend and promote all this. He has no “Etch-A-Sketch” option, as one of Mitt Romney’s aides once so memorably put it. He can’t shake a toy and make all his previous statements disappear into the past and dissolve from people’s memories. Some memories are indeed short, especially among Southwest Florida’s elders, but others have memories like elephants.
Mercifully, both Banyai and Donalds say they want to conduct a clean, non-personal, dignified race that focuses on policy and Southwest Florida and appeals to our better natures. We’ll see how long that lasts, especially if the polling narrows and the PACs and consultants have their way in pushing the kind of negative campaigning and advertising that fills their coffers.
So by a sheer accident of nature, history and coincidence, sleepy, swampy, sweltering Southwest Florida this year is home to one of the most interesting congressional races in the country. It pits a totally ideologically orthodox conservative African American Trumper with a checkered personal past against a progressive Biden Democratic white suburban mom, who also happens to be a PhD and former professional prizefighter.
It would be fun to see the two of them go three rounds in a boxing ring. But short of that, we’ll have to settle for a political bout.
Voters have a stark and definitive choice. Don’t prejudge the outcome before the final bell.
Liberty lives in light
© 2020 by David Silverberg